[SRM] FW: [EXT]Your Ultimate Drought Decision Tool

Fri May 27 19:30:48 MST 2022

From: Good Grazing Makes Cent$ <programs at rangelands.org>
Sent: Friday, May 27, 2022 8:19 AM
To: Gornish, Elise - (egornish) <egornish at arizona.edu>
Subject: [EXT]Your Ultimate Drought Decision Tool

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PLANNING FOR DROUGHT...

Having a drought plan in place well before an operation is in the midst of a drought not only ensures crucial decisions are made by logic and not the emotion of the season but it can relieve stress, provide checkpoints, and ultimately prevent long-term damage to the range and loss of condition for the stock. Even planning in the spring of the year could be a bit late, but getting started before the tanks are dry and the pastures are dusty can make a difference.

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Planning for Drought

Dave Voth, a ranch manager in Nevada, had been working through a summer of intense drought and in August 2021, said he learned more that year than he might ever learn about drought.  One of the main observations he noted was that planning for drought starts the year before – particularly by leaving residual forage behind, but also in analyzing cattle marketing options, creating a plan with decision deadlines, inventorying water supply, and more. Perhaps you're already facing drought you didn't plan for a year ago, but the information provided can help with some timely decisions now and for creating a larger plan for the future.

Drought can bring on a gamut of difficult decisions that go well beyond feed availability.  Maintaining your range is one of the most important priorities when thinking long term, as one summer of damages can have long lasting effects.  That can mean making tough decisions about cattle numbers. When making those decisions, identifying the most logical and practical class of stock to sell, both for your operation and for the given market conditions, can largely impact your bottom line.

Then, there’s the fact that a drought may not mean you are short on feed, but instead short on stock water.  This could mean you are leaving feed behind in an already difficult year only because water is not available in that pasture.

The many variables drought brings to a ranching operation can certainly make planning and preparing for this natural disaster beyond challenging.  While it looks different for every business, one mainstay which helps when planning for drought is starting early.

Voth said this decision goes back as far as grazing intensity in the previous year.  Then, as soon as the growing season starts, he evaluates the forage he has available and inventories stock water.  A solid understanding of your feed and water availability early in the year supports planning for the summer ahead.

If things are looking grim, early on Voth identifies ways to lighten the feed demand on his operation by decreasing cattle numbers.  It’s important to remember this doesn’t always mean destocking.  There are multiple options to consider before destocking entirely.  For example, Voth said one good option is weaning early as it reduces the cow’s nutritional needs by 40 percent. Again, since every operation varies, this may not be the feasible option for your situation. Another consideration is culling deeper and earlier than usual. Perhaps some culling decisions can be made at branding rather than weaning or preg-testing time – and it could be an opportunity to refine your genetics even more. Regardless of which route is best for you, Voth said having a good relation with your cattle buyer or representative is crucial, as is contacting them early. (Resources to observe the market are included below and more information on marketing will be provided throughout the drought series.)

Since the many variables are met with many options, it can be helpful to have a plan etched out well ahead of time, and there are tools available to make creating that plan as logical as possible. Two professionals at University of California Agriculture and Natural Resources (UCANR) recently created a "Drought Decision Support Tool for Ranchers<https://rangelands.us14.list-manage.com/track/click?u=aabb3bc932b99943fd4ad042f&id=cdfae73f89&e=740c253265>" that takes the plan from your head and puts it on paper, with timelines and action steps if needed.

The authors, Grace Woodmansee and Dan Macon, UCANR Livestock & Natural Resource Advisors, call their tool a "starting point" and it is designed to uniquely fit the needs of your operation - whether that means starting a conversation about drought planning, turning ideas into concrete steps, or simply raising considerations that were overlooked in the past. Regardless of your “starting point” having a well thought out drought plan can mitigate the impacts of the natural disaster, not just on your range and stock, but on your mind as well.

As Voth was doing on his operation, the UCANR Tool helps take stock of supply and demand, and offers ways to balance the two using different strategies at different times of year. Forage availability, along with the ability to conserve and supplement it, is considered your supply.  The demand is the number and class of grazing stock needing forage. At times, both your supply and your demand can be flexible. For example, during a drought you could decrease your demand as soon as possible by culling heavy, and early, like Voth explained in the video, thus extending the life of your supply. Likewise, some supply flexibility could be practiced by moderate stocking rates and stockpiling of forage in good years, or by providing supplemental feed when the range is short.

Practicing supply and demand flexibility can be done in both a proactive and reactive manner.  It’s critical, though, to avoid sunk costs when utilizing both proactive and reactive strategies. Say you conserved feed for bred cows in a proactive step but then later reacted to drought by selling those cows, the benefit of your investment was not realized. The Drought Decision Tool helps pair proactivity and reactivity in a logical manner to avoid any sunk costs.

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To help analyze which options may yield the “least undesired consequences,” the UCANR team also developed worksheets to help fully understand the economic impact of particular drought management decisions, like weaning early.  For beef cattle, the worksheet can be downloaded here<https://rangelands.us14.list-manage.com/track/click?u=aabb3bc932b99943fd4ad042f&id=c2e422db24&e=740c253265>.  The Excel spreadsheet allows you to simply input the information specific to your ranch and calculates the costs of full feeding, culling, and weaning early so you can weigh the best option for your operation.

More about the Drought Decision Support Tool can be found at this blog<https://rangelands.us14.list-manage.com/track/click?u=aabb3bc932b99943fd4ad042f&id=420843b393&e=740c253265> or by viewing the entire tool here<https://rangelands.us14.list-manage.com/track/click?u=aabb3bc932b99943fd4ad042f&id=f78d3faee5&e=740c253265>.  Remember, your local County Extension agent may have tools of their own, so contact them for more resources.

While planning for drought is different for everyone and many hypotheticals are involved, one thing that's certain is that getting an early start and having ideas in place before they are NEEDED can help avoid sleepless nights, range damage, livestock condition loss, and sunk costs. Whether or not you've been able to get a jump start on the drought many are currently facing, use this information and these tools to arm yourself for upcoming years and make sound decisions in the given circumstances.

Drought Decision Support Tool for Ranchers<https://rangelands.us14.list-manage.com/track/click?u=aabb3bc932b99943fd4ad042f&id=5c268ee4d8&e=740c253265>

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STEPS TO TAKE BEFORE DESTOCKING

  1.  Wean Early
  2.  Cull Deep
  3.  Supplement Protein, Full Feed, or Water
  4.  Sell a Different Class or Age of Stock
  5.  Don’t Retain Heifers

Each operation is different and the best steps to take in a drought may vary. Perhaps culling deep and selling heifer calves is more cost effective than supplementing feed or weaning early given your set up.  These cost analysis worksheets<https://rangelands.us14.list-manage.com/track/click?u=aabb3bc932b99943fd4ad042f&id=325e128734&e=740c253265> can help you determine the most financially sound option for your specific situation.

Download Drought Strategy Cost Worksheet<https://rangelands.us14.list-manage.com/track/click?u=aabb3bc932b99943fd4ad042f&id=2121f082ea&e=740c253265>

Considering Weaning Early?  Here are a few helpful articles on the subject:

3 Reasons to Wean Early<https://rangelands.us14.list-manage.com/track/click?u=aabb3bc932b99943fd4ad042f&id=e935de3be9&e=740c253265> by Progressive Cattle
DROUGHT STRATEGIES: Weaning Calves Early<https://rangelands.us14.list-manage.com/track/click?u=aabb3bc932b99943fd4ad042f&id=e22fdc3fe1&e=740c253265> by University of California Ag and Natural Resources

MARKET WATCH...

DTN Livestock Market Analyst ShayLe Stewart makes it a full time job to watch the cattle markets, and while that can be tough to find time for when you are a busy rancher, she provided a comprehensive list of resources to reference when making marketing decisions. Click any of the links below for current reports.

First, as it relates to marketing during drought - pay attention to drought conditions.

  *   Western U.S. Drought Map<https://rangelands.us14.list-manage.com/track/click?u=aabb3bc932b99943fd4ad042f&id=1f8bdeb2cf&e=740c253265>
  *   U.S. Drought Map<https://rangelands.us14.list-manage.com/track/click?u=aabb3bc932b99943fd4ad042f&id=cb339ebfb0&e=740c253265>
  *   Crop Progress Report<https://rangelands.us14.list-manage.com/track/click?u=aabb3bc932b99943fd4ad042f&id=6934bc926c&e=740c253265>  (You may not be a farmer, but the success of the current planting season will impact calf prices across the country.)
Next, observe what the markets are doing each week.

  *   National Weekly Feeder & Stocker Cattle Summary<https://rangelands.us14.list-manage.com/track/click?u=aabb3bc932b99943fd4ad042f&id=dad6a44f18&e=740c253265> (Published each Monday summarizing feeder cattle prices nationwide.)
  *   State Weekly Livestock Auction Summary<https://rangelands.us14.list-manage.com/track/click?u=aabb3bc932b99943fd4ad042f&id=9475d7b312&e=740c253265> (Weekly reports summarizing your specific region.)
  *   ShayLe Stewart's Weekly Cattle Market News Update<https://rangelands.us14.list-manage.com/track/click?u=aabb3bc932b99943fd4ad042f&id=622c92eee0&e=740c253265> (Posted each Monday, Stewart hits the highlights from the previous week in an 8 - 10 minute video.)
  *   Beef Basis Calculator<https://rangelands.us14.list-manage.com/track/click?u=aabb3bc932b99943fd4ad042f&id=65bbf00e59&e=740c253265> (This tool generates a customized estimate of feeder cattle basis and cash selling price at an expected future sale date.)
Hear more from ShayLe and other industry experts during our live panel discussion, When in Drought...

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RANGELANDS SPOTLIGHT...

"Drought Mitigation for Grazing Operations: Matching the Animal to the Environment"<https://rangelands.us14.list-manage.com/track/click?u=aabb3bc932b99943fd4ad042f&id=9413db473c&e=740c253265>

By John Derek Scasta, David Lalman, Leticia Henderson

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"With expected increases in drought frequency and severity, long-term drought management strategies that focus on cattle selection and natural resource management  are essential...
Because grazed forage remains the least expensive source of nutrients to maintain the cow herd, matching cow size and milk production potential to forage resources to optimize forage utilization and reproductive efficiency should be considered a rangeland drought mitigation strategy.

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YOUR QUESTIONS ANSWERED...

REAL TALK...

This month's Q & A is a transcript from an interactive conversation happening in our Good Grazing Makes Cent$ Facebook group right now.  Join the group to partake in this conversation and others like it, or even post a question of your own for some unique insight.

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Andrea Leininger is the owner and operator of SECO Ranch Planning.<https://rangelands.us14.list-manage.com/track/click?u=aabb3bc932b99943fd4ad042f&id=ca15784134&e=740c253265>  She can be reached at andee at secoranchplanning.com<mailto:andee at secoranchplanning.com>.
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CONNECT WITH US...

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With your producer membership comes an opportunity to join our forum on Facebook. This is a place to discuss general questions or ones specific to your own operation. Have a plant your cattle aren't grazing? Send a picture to the group and discuss why! This is an excellent opportunity to connect and get the expert advice you're looking for.

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TELL US THE TOPIC...

Our goal is provide the answers to the questions YOU HAVE. To do that, we need to hear from you! Submit a question for upcoming newsletters and we'll reach out to our experts to get the answers. Look for it in upcoming newsletters or our Facebook Group!

Submit a Question.<mailto:srmoutreach at rangelands.org?subject=Good%20Grazing%20Makes%20Cent%24>

PASS IT ALONG...

Good Grazing Makes Cent$ was designed with ranchers, farmers, and landowners in mind.  This information is intended to aid those stewarding the land by equipping them with science, knowledge, and connections across the country with answers to their questions.  If you know someone who would benefit, forward this email, share our Facebook group, and direct them to goodgrazing.org.<https://rangelands.us14.list-manage.com/track/click?u=aabb3bc932b99943fd4ad042f&id=d6792c1a95&e=740c253265>

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