[CED/CD/EAT] From yesterday's Yellow sheet - newsletter from the capital

Tue Apr 21 13:56:26 MST 2020

>From last night's yellow sheet.

The Ninth Floor [Gov's political Office]  told Arizona mayors this morning (4/20) Arizona would essentially mirror Trump's proposed plan to reopen the economy, but that the state isn't ready to take the first step. The announcement comes after Ducey said last week that it was up to him, not Trump, when the state reopens (LINK). When Winslow Mayor Thomas McCauley asked what criteria Ducey would be looking for, Ducey Policy Advisor Ben Blink said the state will be using "basically the same" criteria listed in Trump's plan. The state, Blink said, will be looking for downward trajectories in influenza-like illnesses and COVID-like cases. "We want to make sure we've got the data we need that's robust enough in Arizona before making those types of decisions," Blink said. Trump released his three-phase plan last week, which lays out a roadmap to reopening for states that see fewer reports of COVID-19 and influenza-like illnesses for two weeks. The idea is to slowly open up businesses to normal operations while slowly reeling back social distancing measures. However, Blink said the state is not yet ready for Phase One because the state "hasn't hit some of the key metrics that the White House is looking for." "I think we're still waiting for that downward trajectory. We're still waiting on that 14-day trajectory to be able to do that," Blink said. The state will continue to rely on that public health data and needs "more guidance" for businesses that could reopen before they start that process. Under Phase One, all "vulnerable individuals" should continue to stay home, and those who do go out should continue to social distance and avoid groups of 10 or more. Schools and bars would remain closed, visits to senior living facilities would be prohibited, however gyms, movie theaters, sporting venues and large venues could open if they allow for physical distancing and properly sanitize surfaces.

Ducey was hopeful last week when he said the state could reopen May 1 if public health data supports it, but the Ninth Floor today said it is continuing to consider its options as that day approaches. When asked to elaborate on what Blink said in the Monday call, Ducey spokesman Patrick Ptak said as the state approaches April 30, the day Ducey's stay-at-home order is set to expire, it's considering three options. "We can let the order expire, [or] we can extend it as is, or we can extend it with changes and modifications that reflect Arizona's improving situation on the ground," Ptak said in a text. "The decision will be based on the data over the next week as well as the guidance and recommendations of public health officials." Ptak would not say which of those options is most probable, only saying it will be a "data-driven decision," based on data that the state will track over "the next week or so."

Public health experts say while they generally support Trump's phased-in plan, some parts are intentionally vague to give states discretion, and there are some important things missing entirely. Former Dept of Health Services Director Will Humble told our reporter the state is meeting most of the requirements in Trump's plan for states to reopen except for testing, as the criteria for "robust" testing is subjective. Humble said he doubts the state could start opening by the end of the month, but maybe in the first two weeks of May. Humble said if he crafted the plan, he would have made it more prescriptive by giving states a deadline to move forward or backwards between phases, rather than leaving the timeline intentionally vague. "This puts a structure, a skeleton in place that doesn't work on its own and it needs to be fleshed out for it to work," Humble said. "It's thoughtful and not overly prescriptive, but detailed enough that states could use it and build on it." However, Joe Gerald, director of Public Health Policy and Management at the University of Arizona's College of Public Health, told our reporter that while Arizona is meeting most of these criteria and could "possibly" reopen by the beginning of May, it's not probable. Social distancing efforts appear to be working and cases are starting to trend downward, Gerald said, but it's not definitively clear which side of the peak Arizona is on. Determining whether the state has peaked is key for moving forward and phasing out restrictions. Even if the state meets those requirements set out in Trump's plan, Gerald said, it might not be sufficient enough to justify an opening, especially soon enough to meet Ducey's optimistic goal. "In 10 days may we be able to establish a downward trajectory? I think that's possible," Gerald said. "The most I would say would be 'possible.'"

Compared with: https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/arizona below on 4/20/20

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Jeffrey C. Silvertooth, Ph.D.
Associate Dean
Director for Extension & Economic Development
Division of Agriculture, Life, & Veterinary Sciences, and Cooperative Extension
Forbes 301, Bldg. #36
University of Arizona
Tucson, AZ       85721-0036
520-621-7205

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