El Niño 2018-2019? An Overview of What It Might Mean for Arizona

Thu Dec 13 12:08:30 MST 2018

El Niño conditions are developing in the tropical Pacific Ocean and current forecasts show that a weak or moderate event is very possible this winter and spring. Were a weak or moderate event to happen, what might this mean for Arizona? Will it be cooler than usual? Will rain and snow amounts be greater? Will there be relevant related hazards or favorable circumstances? In this Extension Climate Fact Sheet about the potential 2018-2019 El Niño event<https://cals.arizona.edu/research/climategem/resources/ENwatch20182019overview.pdf>, we start to answer such questions by providing an overview of this phenomenon and how it possibly will influence weather across the state during the coming months.

Along with near-term weather forecasts from the National Weather Service<https://www.weather.gov/> (NWS), the NWS Climate Prediction Center issues extended range outlooks for 6-10<http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/> and 8-14<http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/> days, as well as monthly<http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/30day/> and seasonal<http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/> climate outlooks. These map products show probabilities of temperature and precipitation being either below average, normal, or above average during these time frames. Also, in addition to Extension Climate Fact Sheets like this one, climate specialists and scientists of Cooperative Extension are working with the Climate Assessment for the Southwest (CLIMAS) to provide more information related to the potential 2018-2019 El Niño event<https://www.climas.arizona.edu/sw-climate/el-ni%C3%B1o-southern-oscillation>. Please contact us for further information, data, and analysis that could be applied to stakeholder needs in your county.

Jeremy Weiss, Climate and Geospatial Extension Scientist, School of Natural Resources and the
Environment, University of Arizona, 520-626-8063, jlweiss at email.arizona.edu<mailto:jlweiss at email.arizona.edu>
Michael Crimmins, Climate Science Extension Specialist, Department of Soil, Water, and
Environmental Science, University of Arizona, 520-626-4244, crimmins at email.arizona.edu<mailto:crimmins at email.arizona.edu>
Gregg Garfin, Climate Science, Policy, and Natural Resources Extension Specialist, School of Natural Resources and the Environment, University of Arizona, 520-626-4372,
gmgarfin at email.arizona.edu<mailto:gmgarfin at email.arizona.edu>
Paul Brown, Biometeorology Extension Specialist, Department of Soil, Water, and
Environmental Science, University of Arizona, 520-621-1319, pbrown at ag.arizona.edu<mailto:pbrown at ag.arizona.edu>

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Jeremy L. Weiss, PhD
Climate and Geospatial Extension Scientist
School of Natural Resources and the Environment
University of Arizona

website:
cals.arizona.edu/research/climategem<https://cals.arizona.edu/research/climategem>

office phone:
1.520.626.8063

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