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<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif">El Niņo 2018-2019? An Overview of What It Might Mean for Arizona<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif">El Niņo conditions are developing in the tropical Pacific Ocean and current forecasts show that a weak or moderate event is very possible this winter and spring. Were a
weak or moderate event to happen, what might this mean for Arizona? Will it be cooler than usual? Will rain and snow amounts be greater? Will there be relevant related hazards or favorable circumstances? In this
<span style="color:#002060"><a href="https://cals.arizona.edu/research/climategem/resources/ENwatch20182019overview.pdf"><span style="color:#002060">Extension Climate Fact Sheet about the potential 2018-2019 El Niņo event</span></a></span>, we start to answer
such questions by providing an overview of this phenomenon and how it possibly will influence weather across the state during the coming months.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif">Along with near-term weather forecasts from the
<span class="MsoHyperlink"><span style="color:#002060"><a href="https://www.weather.gov/"><span style="color:#002060">National Weather Service</span></a></span></span> (NWS), the NWS Climate Prediction Center issues extended range outlooks for
<span class="MsoHyperlink"><span style="color:#002060"><a href="http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/"><span style="color:#002060">6-10</span></a></span></span> and
<span class="MsoHyperlink"><span style="color:#002060"><a href="http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/"><span style="color:#002060">8-14</span></a></span></span> days, as well as
<span class="MsoHyperlink"><span style="color:#002060"><a href="http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/30day/"><span style="color:#002060">monthly</span></a></span></span> and
<span class="MsoHyperlink"><span style="color:#002060"><a href="http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/"><span style="color:#002060">seasonal</span></a></span></span> climate outlooks. These map products show probabilities of temperature and
precipitation being either below average, normal, or above average during these time frames. Also, in addition to Extension Climate Fact Sheets like this one, climate specialists and scientists of Cooperative Extension are working with the Climate Assessment
for the Southwest (CLIMAS) to provide more <span class="MsoHyperlink"><span style="color:#002060"><a href="https://www.climas.arizona.edu/sw-climate/el-ni%C3%B1o-southern-oscillation"><span style="color:#002060">information related to the potential 2018-2019
El Niņo event</span></a></span></span>. Please contact us for further information, data, and analysis that could be applied to stakeholder needs in your county.</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif">Jeremy Weiss, Climate and Geospatial Extension Scientist, School of Natural Resources and the
<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;line-height:150%;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif">Environment, University of Arizona, 520-626-8063,
<span class="MsoHyperlink"><span style="color:#002060"><a href="mailto:jlweiss@email.arizona.edu"><span style="color:#002060">jlweiss@email.arizona.edu</span></a></span></span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif">Michael Crimmins, Climate Science Extension Specialist, Department of Soil, Water, and
<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;line-height:150%;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif">Environmental Science, University of Arizona, 520-626-4244,
<span class="MsoHyperlink"><span style="color:#002060"><a href="mailto:crimmins@email.arizona.edu"><span style="color:#002060">crimmins@email.arizona.edu</span></a></span></span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif">Gregg Garfin, Climate Science, Policy, and Natural Resources Extension Specialist, School of Natural Resources and the Environment, University of Arizona, 520-626-4372,
<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:150%"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;line-height:150%;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif;color:#002060"><a href="mailto:gmgarfin@email.arizona.edu"><span style="color:#002060">gmgarfin@email.arizona.edu</span></a></span></span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;line-height:150%;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif">Paul Brown, Biometeorology Extension Specialist, Department of Soil, Water, and
<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif">Environmental Science, University of Arizona, 520-621-1319,
<span class="MsoHyperlink"><span style="color:#002060"><a href="mailto:pbrown@ag.arizona.edu"><span style="color:#002060">pbrown@ag.arizona.edu</span></a></span></span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"">------<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"">Jeremy L. Weiss, PhD<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"">Climate and Geospatial Extension Scientist<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"">School of Natural Resources and the Environment<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"">University of Arizona<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New""><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"">website:<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><a href="https://cals.arizona.edu/research/climategem"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:windowtext">cals.arizona.edu/research/climategem</span></a><u><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New""><o:p></o:p></span></u></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New""><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"">office phone:<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"">1.520.626.8063<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
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