[CED/CD/EAT] SARS-COV2 transmission, infection mortality rate and latest AZ news.

[Burgess, Shane C - (shaneburgess)]

Everyone, I apologize for emailing you on the weekend, however, I want to get this message to you quickly as I know that some news in the last 36 hours is concerning some of our people and that as our enterprise's leaders people look to you and how you respond. In the last 36 hours I have been contacted about "increasing numbers of COVID cases" in different parts of, or all of, AZ. For example, this headline was in my inbox this morning: Arizona confirms record daily number of new Covid-19 cases<https://www.bizjournals.com/phoenix/news/2020/05/30/arizona-confirms-record-number-covid-19-cases.html?ana=e_phx_bn_breakingnews_breakingnews&j=90511657&t=Breaking%20News&mkt_tok=eyJpIjoiWXpVNE9UVmlPREEwWldFdyIsInQiOiJHMXY2MTdPd1RBcWhHTUxrWmtmTDB3aEZGZmR6MExjbUxKcnU1bisxRFFBNlJvVloyU3l3SWV4VUt3blcyRnZhbDRYa3NyWXZRRGQyTVZTb0ZqcjJncm9iUkx1RUZXV2hzSmhEcHJORGlNU3RjRVBFVVlxS2tYZFdvSzlJOGxsNlRlWmNvZmxJVytaN1dDSUNqQ1g4ZUE9PSJ9>.

Governor Ducey lifted Arizona's statewide stay-at-home-order on May 15, it is no more or less than a biological fact that two weeks after this date there would be more COVID19 cases simply because there will have been more SARS-COV2 infections than in the previous two weeks.  However, if we were able to identify every person infected (asymptomatic and symptomatic) we would see our current Infection Morbidity Rate, Infection Hospitalization Rate and Infection Mortality Rate go down even as the number of clinical COVID cases goes up. As we have discussed on many occasions, as a society without vaccines, we are trying to manage get to a lest-worst-case outcome balancing human health with economic health. Remember that for the vast majority of human history we have had to manage without vaccines.

Another fact is that the impact of COVID-19 (i.e. the disease) depends on where you are and who you are. Everyone's risk is different and everyone's risk to others is different. For many people there is close to zero risk,  for a few people the risk is very high. Ironically, some of those at the lowest risk (even of having any symptoms what so ever) are also the people who could pose the most risk of infection for others. Everyone must make decisions and act appropriately for themselves and also as responsible members of society, in real-time.

I have attached two documents that, as our enterprise's leaders you may find of use. One is a pdf  that I used with Ag100 yesterday. The other is a short article in Science that I request everyone read.

I think that you may find this useful: CDC COVID-19 Employer Information for Office Buildings<https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/community/office-buildings.html>. I found the section on Engineering controls: Isolate workers from the hazard very useful.

Regards
Shane


[E5742DFE]
Shane C. Burgess
Vice President for Agriculture, Life and Veterinary Sciences, and Cooperative Extension Charles-Sander Dean of the College of Agriculture & Life Sciences
THE UNIVERSITY OF ARIZONA

Forbes Building, Room 306 | 1140 E. South Campus Drive
P.O. Box 210036 | Tucson, AZ 85721-0036
Office: 520-621-7621
sburgess at cals.arizona.edu<mailto:sburgess at cals.arizona.edu>
alvsce.arizona.edu<https://alvsce.arizona.edu>
cals.arizona.edu<https://cals.arizona.edu>
twitter<https://twitter.com/UAAgLifeVetExt>

The University of Arizona is located statewide on the ancestral homelands of indigenous peoples.



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