La Niña 2020-2021: An Overview of What It Might Mean for Arizona

[Weiss, Jeremy Lee - (jlweiss)]

La Niña 2020-2021: An Overview of What It Might Mean for Arizona

La Niña conditions have developed in the tropical Pacific Ocean and current forecasts show that a weak or moderate event is very likely this winter and spring. A few forecast models recently have hinted that a strong event is even possible. Were a weak or moderate event to happen, what might this mean for Arizona? Will rain and snow amounts be less? Will it be warmer than usual? Will there be relevant related hazards or favorable circumstances? In this Extension Climate Fact Sheet about the 2020-2021 La Niña event, we start to answer such questions by providing an overview of this phenomenon and how it possibly will influence weather across the state during the coming months.

Along with near-term weather forecasts from the National Weather Service<https://www.weather.gov/> (NWS), the NWS Climate Prediction Center issues extended range outlooks for 6-10<https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/> and 8-14<https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/> days, as well as monthly<https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/30day/> and seasonal<https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/> climate outlooks. These map products show probabilities of temperature and precipitation being either below, near, or above normal during these time frames. Also, in addition to producing Extension Climate Fact Sheets like the one linked to below, we are working with the Climate Assessment for the Southwest<https://climas.arizona.edu/> (CLIMAS) and the Southwest Climate Adaptation Science Center<https://www.swcasc.arizona.edu/> to provide more information related to the 2020-2021 La Niña event. Please contact us for further information, data, and analysis that could be applied to stakeholder needs in your county.

PDF<https://cals.arizona.edu/research/climategem/sites/cals.arizona.edu.research.climategem/files/la-nina-2020-2021-overview.pdf> of Extension Climate Fact Sheet that overviews the 2020-2021 La Niña event



Jeremy Weiss, Climate and Geospatial Extension Scientist
School of Natural Resources and the Environment, University of Arizona
520-626-8063, jlweiss at arizona.edu<mailto:jlweiss at arizona.edu>

Michael Crimmins, Climate Science Extension Specialist
Department of Environmental Science, University of Arizona
520-626-4244, crimmins at arizona.edu<mailto:crimmins at arizona.edu>

Gregg Garfin, Climate Science, Policy, and Natural Resources Extension Specialist
School of Natural Resources and the Environment, University of Arizona
520-626-4372, gmgarfin at arizona.edu<mailto:gmgarfin at arizona.edu>

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