El Niño 2015-2016 : Will It Influence Tropical Cyclones that Affect Arizona?

Fri Oct 9 10:47:13 MST 2015

Arizona is not immune to tropical cyclones. Although most such storms that form off of the western and southern coasts of Mexico move westward to open waters, some of them travel towards the north and bring considerable precipitation to the Southwest. In fact, tropical cyclones originating in the eastern north Pacific Ocean have led to significant flooding events in the state1. Does an El Niño event influence the ability of these storms to form and later affect Arizona weather? If so, what might be some relevant related hazards or favorable circumstances? In this second Extension Climate Fact Sheet about the 2015-2016 El Niño event, we address these questions and note how current conditions in the Pacific Ocean could be changing the odds that tropical cyclones bring moisture to the state.

cals.arizona.edu/research/climategem/resources/EN20152016tropicalcyclones.pdf<http://cals.arizona.edu/research/climategem/resources/EN20152016tropicalcyclones.pdf>

In addition to periodic Extension Climate Fact Sheets like this one, climate specialists and scientists of Cooperative Extension are working with the Climate Assessment for the Southwest (CLIMAS) to produce a full suite of information related to the 2015-2016 El Niño event  (www.climas.arizona.edu/sw-climate/el-niño-southern-oscillation<http://www.climas.arizona.edu/sw-climate/el-niño-southern-oscillation>). Please contact us for further information, data, and analysis that could be applied to stakeholder needs in your county.

Jeremy Weiss, Climate and Geospatial Extension Scientist
School of Natural Resources and the Environment, University of Arizona
520-626-8063, jlweiss at email.arizona.edu<mailto:jlweiss at email.arizona.edu>

Michael Crimmins, Climate Science Extension Specialist
Department of Soil, Water, and Environmental Science, University of Arizona
520-626-4244, crimmins at email.arizona.edu<mailto:crimmins at email.arizona.edu>

Gregg Garfin, Climate Science, Policy, and Natural Resources Extension Specialist
School of Natural Resources and the Environment, University of Arizona
520-626-4372, gmgarfin at email.arizona.edu<mailto:gmgarfin at email.arizona.edu>

Paul Brown, Biometeorology Extension Specialist
Department of Soil, Water, and Environmental Science, University of Arizona
520-621-1319, pbrown at ag.arizona.edu<mailto:pbrown at ag.arizona.edu>

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Jeremy L. Weiss, PhD
Climate and Geospatial Extension Scientist
School of Natural Resources and the Environment
University of Arizona

website:
http://cals.arizona.edu/research/climategem

office phone:
1.520.626.8063

mailing address:
1064 East Lowell Street
P.O. Box 210137
Tucson, AZ 85721-0137

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